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Weekly report

07

Sep

2015

The differences between the two algorithms that I used to generate stopping values were examined. The most obvious difference was the alpha values used. These are derived from the confidence level and generate a bound usually to do with the maximum likely number of nodes to be examined by traceroute MDA. Alpha is the probability of a type one error for the analysis of one node in a path. This is the probability of failing to find a successor node. When I substituted the alpha values from my Monte Carlo algorithm into the published theoretical Veitch algorithm they gave almost identicle results for predicting stopping values. The difference was that the Veitch algorithm used a power series for alpha based on confidence as the number of stopping values varied, whereas ours used a single result based on the assumption of a maximum of thirty nodes. It seems that the Veitch method may give a lower than expected overall confidence for the path where the number of successors is mostly low.

The reason for using two algorithms was that ours was able to make twice as many predictions of stopping values with the available computing power.